Understanding the response of the Western Mediterranean cephalopods to environment and fishing in a context of alleged winners of change.

Increasing impacts of both fisheries and climate change have resulted in shifts in the structure and functioning of marine communities. One recurrent observation is the rise of cephalopods as fish recede. This is generally attributed to the removal of main predators and competitors by fishing, while mechanistic evidence is still lacking. In addition, climate change may influence cephalopods due to their high environmental sensitivity. We aim to unveil the effects of different anthropogenic and environmental drivers at different scales focusing on the cephalopod community of the Western Mediterranean Sea. We investigate several ecological indicators offering a wide range of information about their ecology, and statistically relating them with environmental, biotic and fisheries drivers. Our results highlight non-linear changes of indicators along with spatial differences in their responses. Overall, the environment drivers have greater effects than biotic and local human impacts with contrasting effects of temperature across the geographic gradient. We conclude that cephalopods may be impacted by climate change in the future while not necessary through positive warming influence, which should make us cautious when referring to them as generalized winners of current changes.

Spatial patterns of ß-diversity under cumulative pressures in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

Understanding the spatial dynamics of biodiversity is an essential issue in marine ecology and requires combining information at local and regional scales. ß-diversity is an important measure of biodiversity that informs on the differences in community composition between sites and, thus, in the species turnover in the community structure. In this study, we analysed and predicted the spatial patterns of ß-diversity for fishes, invertebrates and the demersal assemblage along the Iberian Mediterranean coast. We used Bayesian Bootstrap Generalized Dissimilarity Models (BBGDMs) to study the effects of environment and human pressures on the ß-diversity of invertebrate, fishes and the entire demersal assemblage from 1994 to 2015 using different time windows to account for temporal variability. Then, we used these relationships to predict the spatial patterns of ß-diversity in the whole Iberian Mediterranean coast. Our results highlighted that the regional spatial patterns of ß-diversity were best described by bathymetry and a cumulative index of coastal impacts. We identified specific regions with the highest ß-diversity in the study area, which were complementary to hotspots of species richness and presented different degree of overlapping with existent marine protected areas. Overall, our study illustrates that by modelling spatial turnover using ß-diversity we can better understand and predict spatial variation of biodiversity and the effects of particular variables, providing relevant information to end-users and policy makers for designing specific spatial conservation and management strategies.